Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.093EPA / play+0.040
- 39.3%Success rate42.3%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.172
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- 33.0%Third-down rate41.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.45Points / drive1.93
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 15/27 | 131 | 0 | 3 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 4/6 | 50 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/23 | 201 | 2 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 2/2 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brown | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Billy Volek | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.39
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+7.48