2003 · Week 10

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Brian Griese

7·31

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TEN -5.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+7.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapTitans
  • -0.093EPA / play+0.040
  • 39.3%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.215
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.172
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 33.0%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.93
  • 3.3%Turnover rate1.7%
  • -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. TEN are 8-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4TEN @ MIA31–12TEN
2023 · W14TEN @ MIA28–27TEN
2021 · W17MIA @ TEN3–34TEN
2018 · W1TEN @ MIA20–27MIA
2017 · W5TEN @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · W5TEN @ MIA30–17TEN
2015 · W6MIA @ TEN38–10MIA
2012 · W10TEN @ MIA37–3TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–TEN
TENQ1 15:00669Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 12:00515Punt0–7
TENQ1 10:211682Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 1:3436Punt0–14
TENQ1 0:08419Punt0–14
MIAQ2 12:3839Punt0–14
TENQ2 11:0835Punt0–14
MIAQ2 9:45233Turnover0–14
TENQ2 8:5131Punt0–14
MIAQ2 7:133-12Punt0–14
TENQ2 5:09717Turnover on downs0–14
MIAQ2 1:5337Turnover0–20
TENQ2 1:11124Touchdown0–21
MIAQ2 1:02729End of half0–21
MIAQ3 15:0038Punt0–21
TENQ3 13:39530Punt0–21
MIAQ3 9:3235Opp touchdown0–28
MIAQ3 8:08829Turnover0–28
TENQ3 3:34626Turnover on downs0–28
MIAQ4 14:53523Punt0–28
TENQ4 12:1336Punt0–28
MIAQ4 9:5020Turnover0–28
TENQ4 9:40640Field goal0–31
MIAQ4 5:1638Punt0–31
TENQ4 3:4636Punt0–31
MIAQ4 1:51664Touchdown7–31
TENQ4 0:2000End of half7–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese15/2713103
Sage Rosenfels4/65010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams13372.80
Travis Minor3227.30

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair17/2320120
Billy Volek2/22200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Brown12463.80
Eddie George15432.91
Steve McNair231.50
Billy Volek200.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.39
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+7.48