Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
38
Model margin
+3.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. OAK are 10-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:53 | 2 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:55 | 19 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 12:49 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:55 | 6 | 54 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:55 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:59 | 10 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:34 | 6 | 30 | End of half | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 64 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:23 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LV | Q3 4:42 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:08 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| LV | Q4 14:20 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 16–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:32 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 16–21 |
| LV | Q4 10:08 | 12 | 68 | Field goal | 16–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:27 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:09 | 5 | 27 | End of half | 24–24 |
| NYJ | OT | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 18/27 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
6.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.