Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
38
Model margin
+3.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. OAK are 9-8-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 18/27 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMont Jordan | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
6.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.98
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.