2003 · Week 10

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

20·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Patrick Ramsey

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

41

Model margin

-0.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCommanders
  • +0.070EPA / play-0.061
  • 46.1%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.148EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.048
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 46.8%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.45
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.012EPA / play allowed+0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. WAS are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck19/2924111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander22944.31
Maurice Morris3268.70
Matt Hasselbeck111.00

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey17/3223222
Rod Gardner1/11010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rock Cartwright13816.20
Trung Canidate15342.30
Laveranues Coles11414.00
John Simon294.50
Patrick Ramsey1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.29