2003 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
41
Model margin
-0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play-0.061
- 46.1%Success rate40.4%
- +0.148EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.048
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 46.8%Third-down rate34.4%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.98Points / drive1.45
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 14:56 | 2 | 9 | Field goal | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:47 | 4 | 7 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 12:26 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q1 10:35 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q1 8:33 | 14 | 95 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| WAS | Q1 1:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–3 |
| SEA | Q2 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 14–3 |
| WAS | Q2 13:04 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| WAS | Q2 12:18 | 3 | 17 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| WAS | Q2 10:20 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| WAS | Q2 9:44 | 8 | 48 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| SEA | Q2 5:54 | 7 | 36 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| WAS | Q2 2:07 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| SEA | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 68 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| SEA | Q3 12:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q3 11:42 | 6 | 30 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| SEA | Q3 8:35 | 10 | 33 | Missed field goal | 17–20 |
| WAS | Q3 2:38 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 17–20 |
| SEA | Q3 0:30 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| WAS | Q4 9:59 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–20 |
| SEA | Q4 9:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–20 |
| WAS | Q4 7:10 | 11 | 84 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| SEA | Q4 1:57 | 5 | 35 | Turnover | 20–27 |
| WAS | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/29 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 22 | 94 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 17/32 | 232 | 2 | 2 |
| Rod Gardner | 1/1 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 13 | 81 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Trung Canidate | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| John Simon | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.29