Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.040
- 41.2%Success rate42.3%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.172
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.46Points / drive1.93
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 12:32 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:56 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 6:21 | 9 | 55 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 1:39 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 11:38 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 9:27 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 5:25 | 7 | 50 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q2 1:24 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 0:20 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q3 12:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q3 11:45 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q3 9:38 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q3 7:04 | 6 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q3 4:36 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q3 3:11 | 6 | 41 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q3 0:19 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TEN | Q4 14:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q4 13:20 | 10 | 36 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q4 7:51 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q4 4:58 | 11 | 67 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q4 0:45 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 3–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 15/31 | 151 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/25 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tyrone Calico | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.91