Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.040
- 41.2%Success rate42.3%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.172
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- 36.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.46Points / drive1.93
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 15/31 | 151 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 13/25 | 166 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tyrone Calico | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.91