Closing spread
KC -6
Total
48
Model margin
+0.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.124EPA / play+0.049
- 47.9%Success rate43.9%
- +0.163EPA / dropback+0.126
- +0.069EPA / rush-0.053
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 42.4%Third-down rate44.6%
- 79.8%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 2.38Points / drive1.83
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed+0.077
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:27 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:28 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 6:19 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 2:25 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q2 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 12:52 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q2 11:17 | 11 | 79 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q2 6:18 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q2 4:03 | 10 | 49 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q2 0:57 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| CIN | Q3 10:32 | 10 | 63 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| KC | Q3 5:04 | 5 | 36 | Missed field goal | 6–10 |
| CIN | Q3 2:25 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 6–10 |
| KC | Q3 0:59 | 5 | 19 | Opp touchdown | 6–17 |
| KC | Q4 12:47 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–17 |
| CIN | Q4 11:15 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 6–17 |
| KC | Q4 9:04 | 5 | 92 | Touchdown | 12–17 |
| CIN | Q4 6:24 | 1 | 77 | Touchdown | 12–24 |
| KC | Q4 6:05 | 14 | 77 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| CIN | Q4 3:19 | 5 | 70 | End of half | 19–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 28/42 | 313 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/32 | 233 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 22 | 165 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
47.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46