2024 · Week 2

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

25·26

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -6.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.107EPA / play+0.071
  • 48.0%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.058
  • 7.3%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +6.81CPOE+2.51
  • 47.3%Third-down rate48.6%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.50Points / drive2.36
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W13KC @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ KC27–24CIN
2021 · W17KC @ CIN31–34CIN
2018 · W7CIN @ KC10–45KC
2015 · W4KC @ CIN21–36CIN
2012 · W11CIN @ KC28–6CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–KC
CINQ1 15:00966Field goal3–0
KCQ1 10:411569Field goal3–3
CINQ1 2:1139Punt3–3
KCQ1 0:2810Turnover3–3
CINQ1 0:19731Touchdown10–3
KCQ2 12:04670Touchdown10–10
CINQ2 8:50941Field goal13–10
KCQ2 4:19415Turnover13–10
CINQ2 3:01626Field goal16–10
KCQ2 1:33520Punt16–10
CINQ2 0:1410End of half16–10
KCQ3 15:001365Touchdown16–17
CINQ3 8:211172Touchdown22–17
KCQ3 2:16613Turnover22–17
CINQ4 15:0030Opp touchdown22–23
CINQ4 14:40858Field goal25–23
KCQ4 9:28410Punt25–23
CINQ4 6:57717Punt25–23
KCQ4 2:351024Field goal25–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3625820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss12342.80
Chase Brown4317.80
Joe Burrow691.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki79910
Jermaine Burton12470
Ja'Marr Chase45350
Erick All44320
Drew Sample33280
Zack Moss11130
Andrei Iosivas2472
Trenton Irwin1650

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes18/2515122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco19904.70
Patrick Mahomes4297.30
Carson Steele7243.40
Xavier Worthy155.00
Travis Kelce111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashee Rice56751
Justin Watson22220
Isiah Pacheco55210
Xavier Worthy24170
Jared Wiley1170
Travis Kelce1350
Samaje Perine1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.13