Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play+0.071
- 48.0%Success rate47.7%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.058
- 7.3%Explosive rate5.8%
- +6.81CPOE+2.51
- 47.3%Third-down rate48.6%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.50Points / drive2.36
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/36 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Jermaine Burton | 1 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Erick All | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 18/25 | 151 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 19 | 90 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 6 | 75 | 1 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jared Wiley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.13