Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.021
- 44.4%Success rate43.8%
- +0.050EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.09CPOE+1.52
- 38.3%Third-down rate44.9%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.89
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 19/33 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Drew Sample | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/29 | 245 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 18 | 130 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 6 | 127 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 7 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.65
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.28
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+1.92