2022 · Week 13

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

24·27

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

53

Model margin

+0.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBengals
  • +0.179EPA / play+0.081
  • 50.6%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.273EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.019EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +3.02CPOE+2.74
  • 49.4%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 2.71Points / drive2.27
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CIN @ KC25–26KC
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2021 · playoffsCIN @ KC27–24CIN
2021 · W17KC @ CIN31–34CIN
2018 · W7CIN @ KC10–45KC
2015 · W4KC @ CIN21–36CIN
2012 · W11CIN @ KC28–6CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CIN
CINQ1 15:001175Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 8:49965Field goal3–7
CINQ1 3:561149Touchdown3–14
KCQ2 13:334-5Punt3–14
CINQ2 11:20416Punt3–14
KCQ2 9:281481Touchdown10–14
CINQ2 2:23870Turnover on downs10–14
KCQ2 0:49219End of half10–14
KCQ3 15:00777Touchdown17–14
CINQ3 12:03857Field goal17–17
KCQ3 7:16853Touchdown24–17
CINQ3 3:491062Field goal24–20
KCQ4 14:47221Turnover24–20
CINQ4 13:521063Touchdown24–27
KCQ4 8:54938Missed field goal24–27
CINQ4 3:19841End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes16/2722310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco14664.71
Jerick McKinnon8516.40
Skyy Moore11212.00
Patrick Mahomes294.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling26710
Travis Kelce46560
JuJu Smith-Schuster34350
Isiah Pacheco22160
Justin Watson11150
Noah Gray11150
Jerick McKinnon2291
Joseph Fortson1160

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow25/3128620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine211065.00
Joe Burrow11464.21
Trayveon Williams133.00
Trent Taylor1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase78970
Tyler Boyd45600
Samaje Perine67490
Tee Higgins35351
Mitchell Wilcox11130
Hayden Hurst23120
Trenton Irwin11120
Chris Evans1181

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.57