Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
53
Model margin
+0.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.179EPA / play+0.081
- 50.6%Success rate47.8%
- +0.273EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.019EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.02CPOE+2.74
- 49.4%Third-down rate47.3%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 2.71Points / drive2.27
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 16/27 | 223 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/31 | 286 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 21 | 106 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 8 | 97 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.57