Closing spread
KC -7
Total
54.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.140
- 44.6%Success rate51.1%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.14CPOE+2.81
- 40.1%Third-down rate52.1%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.38Points / drive2.66
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/38 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 21 | 88 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 10 | 103 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/39 | 275 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 12 | 65 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 11 | 95 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.49