2021 · CON

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

27·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

54.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.140
  • 44.6%Success rate51.1%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.024
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.14CPOE+2.81
  • 40.1%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.66
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CIN @ KC25–26KC
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W13KC @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · W17KC @ CIN31–34CIN
2018 · W7CIN @ KC10–45KC
2015 · W4KC @ CIN21–36CIN
2012 · W11CIN @ KC28–6CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–KC
CINQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:261184Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 7:171361Field goal3–7
KCQ1 0:36775Touchdown3–14
CINQ2 12:14516Punt3–14
KCQ2 10:00967Touchdown3–21
CINQ2 5:04770Touchdown10–21
KCQ2 1:05866End of half10–21
KCQ3 15:00516Punt10–21
CINQ3 12:47446Punt10–21
KCQ3 10:57517Punt10–21
CINQ3 8:401146Field goal13–21
KCQ3 2:5827Turnover13–21
CINQ3 2:18527Touchdown21–21
KCQ3 0:143-2Punt21–21
CINQ4 14:0110Turnover21–21
KCQ4 13:563-4Punt21–21
CINQ4 12:271146Field goal24–21
KCQ4 6:041349Field goal24–24
KCOT30Turnover24–24
CINOT842Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3825021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon21884.20
Joe Burrow5255.00
Ja'Marr Chase133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins6101030
Ja'Marr Chase69541
Samaje Perine34431
Joe Mixon33270
Tyler Boyd46190
Drew Sample1240
C.J. Uzomah0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes26/3927532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon12655.40
Clyde Edwards-Helaire6366.00
Patrick Mahomes3196.30
Mecole Hardman2189.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce1011951
Tyreek Hill710781
Mecole Hardman34521
Jerick McKinnon34300
Byron Pringle23160
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1240
Demarcus Robinson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.74%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.49