2021 · Week 17

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

31·34

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

51

Model margin

+0.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBengals
  • +0.140EPA / play+0.063
  • 51.1%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.216EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +2.81CPOE+5.14
  • 52.1%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.66Points / drive2.38
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CIN @ KC25–26KC
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W13KC @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ KC27–24CIN
2018 · W7CIN @ KC10–45KC
2015 · W4KC @ CIN21–36CIN
2012 · W11CIN @ KC28–6CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CIN
KCQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:2639Punt0–0
KCQ1 11:59640Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 9:21416Punt7–0
KCQ1 6:40873Touchdown14–0
CINQ1 2:50275Touchdown14–7
KCQ1 2:01975Touchdown21–7
CINQ2 12:561175Touchdown21–14
KCQ2 7:42973Touchdown28–14
CINQ2 2:181133Field goal28–17
KCQ2 0:41322End of half28–17
CINQ3 15:00375Touchdown28–24
KCQ3 13:30626Punt28–24
CINQ3 10:301041Punt28–24
KCQ3 5:10744Punt28–24
CINQ3 1:11972Touchdown28–31
KCQ4 11:441052Field goal31–31
CINQ4 6:011579Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes26/3525920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams14886.32
Derrick Gore33712.30
Patrick Mahomes22512.50
Blake Bell122.00
Tyreek Hill122.00
Travis Kelce1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mecole Hardman11530
Tyreek Hill610400
Blake Bell33350
Byron Pringle34350
Demarcus Robinson22331
Travis Kelce57251
Darrel Williams33190
Derrick Gore1180
Noah Gray1160
Josh Gordon1150
Marcus Kemp0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow30/3944640
Brandon Allen0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon12463.80
Joe Burrow5102.00
Samaje Perine144.00
Brandon Allen100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase11122663
Tee Higgins35620
Joe Mixon78400
Tyler Boyd46361
C.J. Uzomah46320
Samaje Perine11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.84