Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
51
Model margin
+0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.140EPA / play+0.063
- 51.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.216EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.81CPOE+5.14
- 52.1%Third-down rate40.1%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.66Points / drive2.38
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26/35 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 14 | 88 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Derrick Gore | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 53 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 10 | 40 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcus Kemp | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 30/39 | 446 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 11 | 12 | 266 | 3 |
| Tee Higgins | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.84