2018 · Week 7

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

10·45

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -6.5

Total

56

Model margin

+5.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.236
  • 43.6%Success rate50.0%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.349
  • -0.105EPA / rush+0.018
  • 10.1%Explosive rate12.1%
  • -3.54CPOE+4.64
  • 36.9%Third-down rate47.8%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
  • 1.95Points / drive3.03
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CIN @ KC25–26KC
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W13KC @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ KC27–24CIN
2021 · W17KC @ CIN31–34CIN
2015 · W4KC @ CIN21–36CIN
2012 · W11CIN @ KC28–6CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–KC
CINQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:261095Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 8:08941Punt0–7
KCQ1 3:35648Missed field goal0–7
CINQ1 0:3946Turnover on downs0–7
KCQ2 14:51432Touchdown0–14
CINQ2 13:181382Touchdown7–14
KCQ2 7:251072Touchdown7–21
CINQ2 1:5533Punt7–21
KCQ2 1:13772Field goal7–24
CINQ2 0:0800End of half7–24
KCQ3 15:00775Touchdown7–31
CINQ3 11:1910Opp touchdown7–38
CINQ3 11:101050Field goal10–38
KCQ3 6:1622Turnover10–38
CINQ3 5:203-11Punt10–38
KCQ3 2:591268Touchdown10–45
CINQ4 12:5037Punt10–45
KCQ4 11:491287Turnover on downs10–45
CINQ4 4:14954End of half10–45

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton15/2914811
Jeff Driskel4/43900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon13503.80
Mark Walton4102.50
Jeff Driskel155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green7141170
Cody Core33300
Tyler Boyd34270
C.J. Uzomah22131
Joe Mixon3510
Matt Lengel0100
John Ross0100
Alex Erickson12-10

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes28/3935841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt15865.71
Spencer Ware8597.40
Patrick Mahomes44511.30
Tyreek Hill284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce55950
Sammy Watkins47740
Tyreek Hill710681
Kareem Hunt56552
Spencer Ware33300
Demetrius Harris12171
Demarcus Robinson22130
Chris Conley1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.31