Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
56
Model margin
+5.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.236
- 43.6%Success rate50.0%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.349
- -0.105EPA / rush+0.018
- 10.1%Explosive rate12.1%
- -3.54CPOE+4.64
- 36.9%Third-down rate47.8%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate75.5%
- 1.95Points / drive3.03
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 15/29 | 148 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeff Driskel | 4/4 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 7 | 14 | 117 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Lengel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 28/39 | 358 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Spencer Ware | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 5 | 95 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 4 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 6 | 55 | 2 |
| Spencer Ware | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.31