2015 · Week 4

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

21·36

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBengals
  • +0.033EPA / play+0.076
  • 44.0%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.067EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.144
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +0.03CPOE+4.53
  • 36.6%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.11
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CIN @ KC25–26KC
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W13KC @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ KC27–24CIN
2021 · W17KC @ CIN31–34CIN
2018 · W7CIN @ KC10–45KC
2012 · W11CIN @ KC28–6CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CIN
CINQ1 15:00780Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 11:331278Field goal3–7
CINQ1 4:35780Touchdown3–14
KCQ1 0:53553Field goal6–14
CINQ2 12:44421Punt6–14
KCQ2 10:43945Field goal9–14
CINQ2 6:09459Missed field goal9–14
KCQ2 4:28864Field goal12–14
CINQ2 0:0400End of half12–14
KCQ3 15:0063Punt12–14
CINQ3 11:51892Touchdown12–21
KCQ3 8:43753Field goal15–21
CINQ3 4:37736Punt15–21
KCQ3 1:58413Turnover15–21
CINQ3 0:2335Touchdown15–29
KCQ3 0:111576Field goal18–29
CINQ4 9:28860Touchdown18–36
KCQ4 4:50552Field goal21–36
CINQ4 2:34512Punt21–36
KCQ4 0:59424End of half21–36

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith31/4538600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles11756.80
Alex Smith5255.00
Charcandrick West5173.40
De'Anthony Thomas2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin11131480
Jamaal Charles66700
Chris Conley27530
Travis Kelce57490
Jason Avant45430
De'Anthony Thomas11110
James O'Shaughnessy1180
Charcandrick West1340

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton17/2432110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard13624.81
Jeremy Hill9404.43
Andy Dalton3165.30
Marvin Jones166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Sanu46840
A.J. Green710820
Tyler Eifert34690
Brandon Tate11551
Rex Burkhead11270
Marvin Jones1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.97