Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play+0.076
- 44.0%Success rate45.3%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.144
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +0.03CPOE+4.53
- 36.6%Third-down rate39.6%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate68.5%
- 1.92Points / drive2.11
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 31/45 | 386 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 11 | 75 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 11 | 13 | 148 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 6 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 17/24 | 321 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 3 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 7 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 3 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 1 | 55 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.97