Closing spread
KC -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.179
- 47.8%Success rate50.6%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.019
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.74CPOE+3.02
- 47.3%Third-down rate49.4%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 2.27Points / drive2.71
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 26/41 | 270 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 11 | 83 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/43 | 326 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6 | 8 | 116 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcus Kemp | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 3 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.92