Closing spread
STL -6
Total
41
Model margin
+4.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 13:06 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:46 | 5 | 41 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 7:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:50 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 5:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:53 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 1:14 | 9 | 34 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 11:29 | 3 | -5 | Opp touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 10:25 | 3 | -25 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q2 8:43 | 10 | 42 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 3:04 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| CHI | Q2 2:59 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 2:03 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CHI | Q2 1:29 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:25 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 3–14 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LA | Q3 13:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| CHI | Q3 11:24 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LA | Q3 7:11 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| CHI | Q3 3:48 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LA | Q3 3:45 | 13 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| CHI | Q4 12:46 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LA | Q4 11:21 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| CHI | Q4 7:21 | 3 | 62 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| LA | Q4 5:58 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 20–21 |
| CHI | Q4 5:15 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 20–21 |
| LA | Q4 2:41 | 13 | 58 | Field goal | 23–21 |
| CHI | Q4 0:38 | 4 | 15 | Turnover on downs | 23–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 16/32 | 153 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 23 | 92 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.