Closing spread
STL -6
Total
41
Model margin
+4.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 16/32 | 153 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 23 | 92 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.