Closing spread
STL -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bears
- OutEddie RoyalWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAlshon JefferyWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableAntrel RolleSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableHroniss GrasuCNeck· Limited
- QuestionableJermon BushrodTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMatt ForteRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionablePernell McPheeLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableShea McClellinLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTracy PorterCBHip· Limited
- ProbableMitch UnreinDTIllness· Full
Rams
- DoubtfulChris LongDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableRob HavensteinTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRobert QuinnDEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableT.J. McDonaldSFoot· Limited
- ProbableAkeem AyersLBIllness· Full
- ProbableChase ReynoldsRBThigh· Full
- ProbableTodd GurleyRBNot Injury Related· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 12:01 | 2 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 11:10 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:32 | 1 | 0 | Field goal | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:24 | 2 | 13 | Field goal | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:57 | 1 | 6 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q1 5:09 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q1 1:01 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q1 0:55 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LA | Q1 0:03 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CHI | Q2 14:02 | 13 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:56 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CHI | Q2 5:52 | 2 | 86 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| LA | Q2 5:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–10 |
| CHI | Q2 3:39 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:48 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 24–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:42 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–10 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LA | Q3 13:28 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 24–10 |
| CHI | Q3 11:36 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 24–10 |
| LA | Q3 6:57 | 9 | 68 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| CHI | Q3 2:41 | 11 | 61 | Field goal | 27–13 |
| LA | Q4 11:24 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 27–13 |
| CHI | Q4 10:15 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 30–13 |
| LA | Q4 8:05 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 30–13 |
| CHI | Q4 6:38 | 5 | 24 | Touchdown | 37–13 |
| LA | Q4 4:55 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 37–13 |
| CHI | Q4 4:02 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 37–13 |
| LA | Q4 2:23 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 37–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/24 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 7 | 9 | 109 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 5 | 5 | 107 | 2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.