Closing spread
STL -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/24 | 258 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | 7 | 9 | 109 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 5 | 5 | 107 | 2 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.80
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.