2024 · Week 4

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

18·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

40

Model margin

-0.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBears
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.072
  • 47.5%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.9%Explosive rate5.9%
  • -0.97CPOE-0.22
  • 37.0%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 49.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.65
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CHI20–17RAMS
2021 · W1CHI @ LA14–34RAMS
2020 · W7CHI @ LA10–24RAMS
2019 · W11CHI @ LA7–17RAMS
2018 · W14LA @ CHI6–15CHI
2015 · W10CHI @ STL37–13CHI
2013 · W12CHI @ STL21–42RAMS
2012 · W3STL @ CHI6–23CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00519Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:241268Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 4:01412Punt3–0
LAQ1 1:56741Field goal6–0
CHIQ2 13:051219Punt6–0
LAQ2 6:511-4Turnover6–0
CHIQ2 6:4242Touchdown6–7
LAQ2 5:421155Missed field goal6–7
CHIQ2 1:01745Field goal6–10
LAQ2 0:0900End of half6–10
LAQ3 15:001249Field goal9–10
CHIQ3 8:501274Touchdown9–17
LAQ3 2:37670Touchdown15–17
CHIQ4 14:55575Touchdown15–24
LAQ4 12:26636Field goal18–24
CHIQ4 8:4731Punt18–24
LAQ4 6:2538Punt18–24
CHIQ4 4:14619Punt18–24
LAQ4 1:0310Turnover18–24
CHIQ4 0:5600End of half18–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/2922401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams19944.91
Ronnie Rivers6264.30
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tutu Atwell46820
Jordan Whittington68620
Demarcus Robinson23370
Colby Parkinson47330
Kyren Williams44100
Tyler Johnson0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams17/2315710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift16935.81
Roschon Johnson7263.71
Caleb Williams5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
D'Andre Swift77720
Cole Kmet33340
DJ Moore36221
Keenan Allen33190
Rome Odunze13100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.40