Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
40
Model margin
-0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.072
- 47.5%Success rate40.1%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.9%Explosive rate5.9%
- -0.97CPOE-0.22
- 37.0%Third-down rate33.1%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.09Points / drive1.65
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/29 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 19 | 94 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu Atwell | 4 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 17/23 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Roschon Johnson | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 6 | 22 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.40