Closing spread
LA -9.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.1est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.087EPA / play+0.082
- 41.4%Success rate46.6%
- -0.077EPA / dropback+0.183
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -2.87CPOE-0.40
- 34.7%Third-down rate42.6%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 1.62Points / drive2.32
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. LA are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 27/38 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 2/2 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 16 | 108 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Goodwin | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 11 | 35 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/26 | 321 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 10 | 108 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 80 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.12