2021 · Week 1

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Andy Dalton

14·34

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -9.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.1est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRams
  • -0.087EPA / play+0.082
  • 41.4%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.077EPA / dropback+0.183
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.089
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -2.87CPOE-0.40
  • 34.7%Third-down rate42.6%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 1.62Points / drive2.32
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. LA are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CHI20–17RAMS
2024 · W4LA @ CHI18–24CHI
2020 · W7CHI @ LA10–24RAMS
2019 · W11CHI @ LA7–17RAMS
2018 · W14LA @ CHI6–15CHI
2015 · W10CHI @ STL37–13CHI
2013 · W12CHI @ STL21–42RAMS
2012 · W3STL @ CHI6–23CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–LA
CHIQ1 15:00554Turnover0–0
LAQ1 11:54380Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:36735Turnover on downs0–7
LAQ1 7:17524Field goal0–10
CHIQ1 4:39618Turnover0–10
LAQ1 1:14954Field goal0–13
CHIQ2 11:39728Punt0–13
LAQ2 7:183-2Punt0–13
CHIQ2 4:42955Touchdown7–13
LAQ2 0:3400End of half7–13
LAQ3 15:00475Touchdown7–20
CHIQ3 13:521681Touchdown14–20
LAQ3 4:14875Touchdown14–27
CHIQ3 1:191349Turnover on downs14–27
LAQ4 10:011475Touchdown14–34
CHIQ4 3:1762Turnover on downs14–34
LAQ4 2:18211End of half14–34

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton27/3820601
Justin Fields2/21000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery161086.81
Andy Dalton2136.50
Damien Williams6122.00
Justin Fields133.01
Marquise Goodwin1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Goodwin44450
Cole Kmet57420
Allen Robinson611350
Damien Williams45280
Darnell Mooney57260
Damiere Byrd33190
Jimmy Graham12110
David Montgomery11100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/2632130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson16704.41
Robert Woods177.00
Sony Michel122.00
Matthew Stafford5-5-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp7101081
Van Jefferson23801
Tyler Higbee56680
Robert Woods34271
DeSean Jackson22210
Darrell Henderson11170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.12