Closing spread
LA -5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.001
- 41.1%Success rate44.3%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.159
- 6.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.71CPOE-1.88
- 36.4%Third-down rate38.8%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.50Points / drive1.95
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. LA are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 24/43 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 1/4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Gabriel | 7 | 14 | 57 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 6 | 11 | 54 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 11/18 | 173 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 25 | 97 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.69