2019 · Week 11

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

7·17

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

LA -5

Total

40

Model margin

+2.7est.

LA perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRams
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.001
  • 41.1%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.188EPA / rush-0.159
  • 6.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.71CPOE-1.88
  • 36.4%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.50Points / drive1.95
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. LA are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CHI20–17RAMS
2024 · W4LA @ CHI18–24CHI
2021 · W1CHI @ LA14–34RAMS
2020 · W7CHI @ LA10–24RAMS
2018 · W14LA @ CHI6–15CHI
2015 · W10CHI @ STL37–13CHI
2013 · W12CHI @ STL21–42RAMS
2012 · W3STL @ CHI6–23CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–LA
CHIQ1 15:00841Missed field goal0–0
LAQ1 11:5415Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 11:43715Turnover on downs0–0
LAQ1 9:09642Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 6:171149Missed field goal0–0
LAQ1 0:57743Field goal0–3
CHIQ2 11:3135Punt0–3
LAQ2 10:0539Punt0–3
CHIQ2 7:47517Turnover0–3
LAQ2 5:23460Touchdown0–10
CHIQ2 3:28824Punt0–10
LAQ2 0:1813End of half0–10
LAQ3 15:0039Punt0–10
CHIQ3 13:011280Touchdown7–10
LAQ3 7:1038Punt7–10
CHIQ3 4:5036Punt7–10
LAQ3 2:46514Punt7–10
CHIQ3 1:2634Punt7–10
LAQ3 0:2930Punt7–10
CHIQ4 14:07611Punt7–10
LAQ4 11:2344Punt7–10
CHIQ4 9:0739Punt7–10
LAQ4 7:42976Touchdown7–17
CHIQ4 3:3176Turnover on downs7–17
LAQ4 1:48312End of half7–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky24/4319011
Chase Daniel1/4900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarik Cohen9394.30
David Montgomery14312.20
Mitchell Trubisky144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taylor Gabriel714570
Anthony Miller611540
Tarik Cohen56351
David Montgomery13190
Allen Robinson46150
Javon Wims12110
Ben Braunecker1380

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff11/1817301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley25973.91
Malcolm Brown5153.01
Jared Goff331.00
Josh Reynolds1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds36550
Cooper Kupp33530
Todd Gurley33360
Gerald Everett11200
Mike Thomas1390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.69