Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.076
- 52.2%Success rate45.7%
- +0.235EPA / dropback+0.122
- +0.021EPA / rush+0.007
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.65CPOE-3.48
- 40.0%Third-down rate42.0%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.67Points / drive2.32
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/42 | 258 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Blake Corum | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 23/42 | 257 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 5 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.48