2025 · DIV

Final / OT

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

20·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 19°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBears
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.076
  • 52.2%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.235EPA / dropback+0.122
  • +0.021EPA / rush+0.007
  • 11.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.65CPOE-3.48
  • 40.0%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.67Points / drive2.32
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W4LA @ CHI18–24CHI
2021 · W1CHI @ LA14–34RAMS
2020 · W7CHI @ LA10–24RAMS
2019 · W11CHI @ LA7–17RAMS
2018 · W14LA @ CHI6–15CHI
2015 · W10CHI @ STL37–13CHI
2013 · W12CHI @ STL21–42RAMS
2012 · W3STL @ CHI6–23CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00542Turnover0–0
LAQ1 12:531485Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 6:201280Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 14:5536Punt7–7
CHIQ2 13:5035Punt7–7
LAQ2 12:24617Punt7–7
CHIQ2 8:54950Turnover on downs7–7
LAQ2 4:265-12Punt7–7
CHIQ2 2:54433Field goal7–10
LAQ2 1:10752Field goal10–10
LAQ3 15:00519Punt10–10
CHIQ3 12:00928Punt10–10
LAQ3 7:3237Punt10–10
CHIQ3 5:30412Turnover10–10
LAQ3 4:0330Punt10–10
CHIQ3 3:40625Punt10–10
LAQ4 14:521491Touchdown17–10
CHIQ4 8:501256Turnover on downs17–10
LAQ4 3:03515Punt17–10
CHIQ4 1:50750Touchdown17–17
LAQ4 0:1800End of half17–17
LAOT37Punt17–17
CHIOT1036Turnover17–17
LAOT954Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/4225800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams21874.12
Blake Corum6193.20
Puka Nacua263.00
Jordan Whittington100.00
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Colby Parkinson37560
Puka Nacua510560
Jordan Whittington22350
Kyren Williams45300
Tyler Higbee12270
Davante Adams26240
Terrance Ferguson15190
Konata Mumpfield23110

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams23/4225723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift19764.00
Caleb Williams5408.00
Kyle Monangai13362.80
DJ Moore188.00
Luther Burden III100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Colston Loveland410560
DJ Moore58521
Rome Odunze26440
Kyle Monangai44360
Cole Kmet33311
Luther Burden III37240
Olamide Zaccheaus1290
Durham Smythe1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.48