2018 · Week 14

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

6·15

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 29°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

50.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapBears
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.039
  • 50.8%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.147
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.119
  • 12.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.24CPOE+2.41
  • 45.0%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
  • 2.63Points / drive1.96
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CHI20–17RAMS
2024 · W4LA @ CHI18–24CHI
2021 · W1CHI @ LA14–34RAMS
2020 · W7CHI @ LA10–24RAMS
2019 · W11CHI @ LA7–17RAMS
2015 · W10CHI @ STL37–13CHI
2013 · W12CHI @ STL21–42RAMS
2012 · W3STL @ CHI6–23CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00824Turnover0–0
LAQ1 10:4736Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 9:121269Field goal3–3
LAQ1 2:48619Punt3–3
CHIQ2 14:50629Punt3–3
LAQ2 11:4520Turnover3–3
CHIQ2 11:0456Field goal3–6
LAQ2 9:241348Field goal6–6
CHIQ2 4:12621Punt6–6
LAQ2 1:38419Punt6–6
CHIQ2 0:5130Turnover6–6
LAQ2 0:1936Turnover6–6
LAQ3 15:002-13Safety6–8
CHIQ3 14:14981Touchdown6–15
LAQ3 9:5838Punt6–15
CHIQ3 7:45819Turnover6–15
LAQ3 3:5810Turnover6–15
CHIQ3 3:52414Punt6–15
LAQ3 0:321378Missed field goal6–15
CHIQ4 10:11425Punt6–15
LAQ4 6:4478Turnover on downs6–15
CHIQ4 4:2836Missed field goal6–15
LAQ4 2:45616Turnover6–15
CHIQ4 2:1312Punt6–15
LAQ4 0:25119End of half6–15

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff20/4418004

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley11282.50
Justin Davis11919.00
Jared Goff155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods713610
Josh Reynolds37360
Todd Gurley37300
Gerald Everett47290
Brandin Cooks38220
Tyler Higbee1190

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky16/3011013

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard191015.30
Tarik Cohen9697.70
Mitchell Trubisky6233.80
Taquan Mizzell111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson58420
Trey Burton25220
Taylor Gabriel37220
Tarik Cohen44200
Bradley Sowell1121
Jordan Howard1120
Josh Bellamy0100
Anthony Miller0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.24