Closing spread
LA -3
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.039
- 50.8%Success rate46.3%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.147
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.119
- 12.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.24CPOE+2.41
- 45.0%Third-down rate41.4%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate67.8%
- 2.63Points / drive1.96
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/44 | 180 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justin Davis | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 7 | 13 | 61 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 16/30 | 110 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Bradley Sowell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.24