Closing spread
STL -1
Total
46
Model margin
-1.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 36/47 | 352 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 7 | -5 | -0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 10 | 12 | 117 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 8 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.23
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.87
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.