Closing spread
STL -1
Total
46
Model margin
-1.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bears
- OutJay CutlerQBAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutJay RatliffDTGroin· Limited
- OutLance BriggsLBShoulder· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutStephen PaeaDTToe· DNP
- QuestionableCraig SteltzSConcussion· Limited
- ProbableIsaiah FreyCBHand· Full
- ProbableJordan MillsTQuadricep· Full
- ProbablePatrick MannellyLSHamstring· Full
- ProbableShea McClellinDEHamstring· Full
Rams
- OutBrady QuinnQBHip· DNP
- OutHarvey DahlGKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulCortland FinneganCBEye· DNP
- ProbableChase ReynoldsRBKnee· Full
- ProbableDarian StewartSFoot· Full
- ProbableMatt GiordanoSThigh· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 13:30 | 1 | -2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 13:19 | 4 | 4 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CHI | Q1 12:36 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LA | Q1 6:14 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| CHI | Q1 1:27 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LA | Q2 12:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–21 |
| CHI | Q2 11:17 | 13 | 98 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LA | Q2 5:19 | 9 | 69 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| CHI | Q2 1:11 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LA | Q2 0:16 | 3 | 4 | End of half | 14–24 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 75 | Turnover on downs | 14–24 |
| LA | Q3 8:16 | 10 | 73 | Field goal | 14–27 |
| CHI | Q3 3:59 | 6 | 45 | Punt | 14–27 |
| LA | Q3 0:40 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–27 |
| CHI | Q4 14:39 | 16 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–27 |
| LA | Q4 7:15 | 8 | 90 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| CHI | Q4 3:05 | 5 | 21 | Opp touchdown | 21–42 |
| CHI | Q4 2:05 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 21–42 |
| LA | Q4 1:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 36/47 | 352 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 7 | -5 | -0.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 10 | 12 | 117 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 8 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.23
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.87
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.