Closing spread
LA -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+7.3est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.013
- 44.0%Success rate44.6%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.28CPOE+0.37
- 34.8%Third-down rate44.2%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.97Points / drive1.76
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. LA are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 28/40 | 261 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 4 | 70 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/33 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Johnny Mundt | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.29