2020 · Week 7

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Nick Foles

10·24

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+7.3est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapRams
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.013
  • 44.0%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.28CPOE+0.37
  • 34.8%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.76
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40 points. LA are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ CHI20–17RAMS
2024 · W4LA @ CHI18–24CHI
2021 · W1CHI @ LA14–34RAMS
2019 · W11CHI @ LA7–17RAMS
2018 · W14LA @ CHI6–15CHI
2015 · W10CHI @ STL37–13CHI
2013 · W12CHI @ STL21–42RAMS
2012 · W3STL @ CHI6–23CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–LA
CHIQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:30943Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:5535Punt0–0
LAQ1 6:35752Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 3:57758Field goal3–7
LAQ2 14:13945Punt3–7
CHIQ2 9:0539Punt3–7
LAQ2 8:05558Field goal3–10
CHIQ2 4:55627Punt3–10
LAQ2 1:08625End of half3–10
LAQ3 15:0062Punt3–10
CHIQ3 11:4934Punt3–10
LAQ3 10:27755Touchdown3–17
CHIQ3 8:06745Turnover3–17
LAQ3 5:07880Touchdown3–24
CHIQ3 1:3447Turnover on downs3–24
LAQ3 0:0747Missed field goal3–24
CHIQ4 12:45850Turnover on downs3–24
LAQ4 9:0632Opp touchdown10–24
LAQ4 7:3036Punt10–24
CHIQ4 5:08618Turnover10–24
LAQ4 3:133-2Punt10–24
CHIQ4 2:46929Turnover on downs10–24
LAQ4 1:0400End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles28/4026102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14483.40
Cordarrelle Patterson310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson44700
Cole Kmet22450
Darnell Mooney37400
Jimmy Graham56310
David Montgomery55210
Anthony Miller35200
Demetrius Harris23150
Cordarrelle Patterson34110
Javon Wims1280

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3322020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson15634.20
Malcolm Brown10575.71
Robert Woods4235.80
Cooper Kupp11616.00
Jared Goff410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds48521
Johnny Mundt33480
Cooper Kupp66430
Gerald Everett45281
Robert Woods35220
Van Jefferson11140
Darrell Henderson22130
Malcolm Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.1%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.54
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.29