Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. SD are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 8:34 | 13 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:35 | 8 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| CIN | Q1 0:11 | 3 | 15 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CIN | Q2 14:33 | 1 | 11 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CIN | Q2 14:02 | 1 | 0 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:44 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q2 9:36 | 7 | 16 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:39 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| CIN | Q2 4:05 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| LAC | Q2 1:25 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 21–13 |
| CIN | Q2 0:54 | 5 | 59 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| LAC | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 28–13 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–13 |
| CIN | Q3 13:29 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 28–13 |
| LAC | Q3 11:30 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–13 |
| CIN | Q3 9:54 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 31–13 |
| LAC | Q3 2:23 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 31–20 |
| CIN | Q4 14:54 | 9 | 28 | Punt | 31–20 |
| LAC | Q4 9:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 31–20 |
| CIN | Q4 8:33 | 8 | 21 | Field goal | 34–20 |
| LAC | Q4 5:26 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 34–27 |
| CIN | Q4 3:04 | 9 | 23 | End of half | 34–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/38 | 243 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 108 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
6.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.