Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. SD are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 24/38 | 243 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 18 | 108 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
6.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.