Closing spread
NYJ -4
Total
43
Model margin
+2.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.013
- 41.2%Success rate41.4%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.7%Third-down rate40.0%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.46Points / drive1.47
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 17/33 | 172 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 32 | 119 | 3.7 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 25/39 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.64