Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
38.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play-0.073
- 41.7%Success rate38.5%
- +0.095EPA / dropback-0.000
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.181
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.97CPOE+0.98
- 36.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.81Points / drive1.51
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 15/35 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 24 | 86 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 22/31 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 21 | 163 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Elijah McGuire | 10 | 93 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 4 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.87