2017 · Week 4

Final / OT

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

20·23

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

38.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapJets
  • +0.020EPA / play-0.073
  • 41.7%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.095EPA / dropback-0.000
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.181
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.97CPOE+0.98
  • 36.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.51
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ
2012 · W14NYJ @ JAX17–10NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
JAXQ1 13:171061Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 8:02175Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 7:49926Punt7–7
NYJQ1 4:441152Punt7–7
JAXQ2 12:251270Field goal10–7
NYJQ2 5:10842Field goal10–10
JAXQ2 1:1130Punt10–10
NYJQ2 0:51547Missed field goal10–10
JAXQ2 0:0800End of half10–10
JAXQ3 15:00623Punt10–10
NYJQ3 10:49282Touchdown10–17
JAXQ3 10:02516Punt10–17
NYJQ3 8:09732Punt10–17
JAXQ3 4:06518Turnover10–17
NYJQ3 2:053-1Field goal10–20
JAXQ3 0:34536Missed field goal10–20
NYJQ4 13:02449Opp touchdown17–20
NYJQ4 10:20734Punt17–20
JAXQ4 6:5639Punt17–20
NYJQ4 4:54514Turnover17–20
JAXQ4 3:19741Field goal20–20
NYJQ4 0:4636End of half20–20
JAXOT66Punt20–20
NYJOT37Punt20–20
JAXOT37Punt20–20
NYJOT626Punt20–20
JAXOT3-1Punt20–20
NYJOT22Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles15/3514011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette24863.60
Chris Ivory9424.70
Blake Bortles4389.50
Corey Grant294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonard Fournette45591
Allen Hurns410420
Marqise Lee23180
Keelan Cole16100
Chris Ivory1320
Marcedes Lewis0400
James O'Shaughnessy0100
Corey Grant11-50

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown22/3122401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell211637.81
Elijah McGuire10939.31
Josh McCown100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen36590
Austin Seferian-Jenkins44460
Elijah McGuire22380
Jeremy Kerley55370
Bilal Powell45270
Jermaine Kearse47170
Eric Tomlinson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.4%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.87