2024 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

32·25

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mac Jones

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.023
  • 43.0%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.004
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.067
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.89CPOE-0.88
  • 39.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.74
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ
2012 · W14NYJ @ JAX17–10NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001457Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 8:37770Touchdown7–7
JAXQ1 5:01510Turnover7–7
NYJQ1 2:59932Punt7–7
JAXQ2 13:481982Field goal7–10
NYJQ2 2:4132Punt7–10
JAXQ2 1:361154Field goal7–13
NYJQ3 15:00715Field goal10–13
JAXQ3 10:28755Field goal10–16
NYJQ3 8:05866Touchdown17–16
JAXQ3 4:3339Punt17–16
NYJQ3 3:01518Punt17–16
JAXQ4 14:50873Touchdown17–22
NYJQ4 10:58740Missed field goal17–22
JAXQ4 7:47516Punt17–22
NYJQ4 4:19487Touchdown25–22
JAXQ4 3:24642Field goal25–25
NYJQ4 1:51770Touchdown32–25
JAXQ4 1:05523Turnover32–25
NYJQ4 0:3700End of half32–25

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/3028930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers6457.50
Breece Hall9303.31
Isaiah Davis5244.80
Braelon Allen252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams9121982
Garrett Wilson36561
Breece Hall22210
Jeremy Ruckert13120
Isaiah Davis1120
Allen Lazard0400

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones31/4629422

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne14654.60
Tank Bigsby11423.80
Mac Jones4297.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Thomas Jr.10141052
Brenton Strange1112730
Parker Washington36540
Devin Duvernay34420
Travis Etienne45200
Josh Reynolds0100
Tank Bigsby0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.07
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.00