Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.023
- 43.0%Success rate41.5%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.067
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.89CPOE-0.88
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.6%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.85Points / drive1.74
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/30 | 289 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Isaiah Davis | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 9 | 12 | 198 | 2 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 31/46 | 294 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 10 | 14 | 105 | 2 |
| Brenton Strange | 11 | 12 | 73 | 0 |
| Parker Washington | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00