2021 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

21·26

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapJets
  • -0.079EPA / play-0.072
  • 44.0%Success rate42.1%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.084
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -4.53CPOE-7.25
  • 35.6%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.70
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ
2012 · W14NYJ @ JAX17–10NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYJ
JAXQ1 15:001238Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 8:12891Touchdown3–6
JAXQ1 3:541274Touchdown9–12
NYJQ2 13:0800Touchdown9–13
JAXQ2 12:571048Field goal12–13
NYJQ2 8:1531Punt12–13
JAXQ2 7:10411Punt12–13
NYJQ2 5:091570Turnover on downs12–13
JAXQ2 0:1000End of half12–13
NYJQ3 15:00848Field goal12–16
JAXQ3 9:475-5Turnover12–16
NYJQ3 7:0549Turnover on downs12–16
JAXQ3 5:04980Field goal15–16
NYJQ3 0:251180Touchdown15–23
JAXQ4 9:16965Touchdown21–23
NYJQ4 5:25972Field goal21–26
JAXQ4 1:471074Turnover on downs21–26
NYJQ4 0:0812End of half21–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence26/3928000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dare Ogunbowale17573.41
Trevor Lawrence6376.20
Tavon Austin3217.00
James Robinson3103.30
Nathan Cottrell133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones813740
Tavon Austin67680
Laquon Treadwell45540
James O'Shaughnessy44490
Jacob Hollister22200
Dare Ogunbowale24150

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson14/2210210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter161187.40
Zach Wilson49122.81
Tevin Coleman14574.10
Braxton Berrios133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braxton Berrios56370
Tyler Kroft35290
Keelan Cole22250
Michael Carter2360
Tevin Coleman1140
Jeff Smith0100
Denzel Mims0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.61