Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play-0.072
- 44.0%Success rate42.1%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.084
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- -4.53CPOE-7.25
- 35.6%Third-down rate37.8%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.33Points / drive1.70
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 26/39 | 280 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dare Ogunbowale | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Nathan Cottrell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 13 | 74 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 14/22 | 102 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 16 | 118 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 91 | 22.8 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.61