2019 · Week 8

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

15·29

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

JAX -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.155EPA / play-0.053
  • 37.3%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.119EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.216EPA / rush-0.145
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.20CPOE-3.03
  • 30.8%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 48.5%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.61
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ
2012 · W14NYJ @ JAX17–10NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00477Touchdown0–6
NYJQ1 12:391398Touchdown7–6
JAXQ1 4:5148Punt7–6
NYJQ1 2:36216Turnover7–6
JAXQ1 2:01273Touchdown7–13
NYJQ1 1:114-3Punt7–13
JAXQ2 14:013-1Turnover7–13
NYJQ2 13:033-2Punt7–13
JAXQ2 11:531689Field goal7–16
NYJQ2 2:573-5Punt7–16
JAXQ2 1:43939Field goal7–19
NYJQ2 0:1100End of half7–19
NYJQ3 15:00613Punt7–19
JAXQ3 10:40712Punt7–19
NYJQ3 6:533-3Punt7–19
JAXQ3 5:14739Field goal7–22
NYJQ3 2:11975Touchdown15–22
JAXQ4 13:07630Punt15–22
NYJQ4 10:104-4Turnover15–22
JAXQ4 8:39823Touchdown15–29
NYJQ4 4:13420Turnover15–29
JAXQ4 3:1844Punt15–29
NYJQ4 2:5044Turnover on downs15–29
JAXQ4 2:2200Turnover on downs15–29
NYJQ4 0:3415End of half15–29

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold21/3021823

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell8232.90
Vyncint Smith11313.00
Bilal Powell4112.80
Sam Darnold1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Griffin44662
Demaryius Thomas55630
Robbie Chosen46430
Jamison Crowder35240
Le'Veon Bell35120
Vyncint Smith24100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew22/3427930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette19764.00
Gardner Minshew8283.50
Ryquell Armstead671.20
DJ Chark100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Conley471031
DJ Chark612791
Leonard Fournette77600
Keelan Cole22121
Seth DeValve11110
Marqise Lee1180
Josh Oliver1260
Dede Westbrook0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.13