Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.053
- 37.3%Success rate39.3%
- -0.119EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.216EPA / rush-0.145
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.20CPOE-3.03
- 30.8%Third-down rate35.4%
- 48.5%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.20Points / drive1.61
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 21/30 | 218 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Griffin | 4 | 4 | 66 | 2 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 22/34 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryquell Armstead | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Conley | 4 | 7 | 103 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 6 | 12 | 79 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.69
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.13