Closing spread
NYJ -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.025
- 41.8%Success rate41.9%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.254EPA / rush-0.144
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.08CPOE-1.27
- 33.9%Third-down rate40.9%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.90
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 24/40 | 381 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 8 | 122 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 11 | 121 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 5 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 8 | 14 | 0 |
| Nic Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/34 | 272 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 23 | 26 | 1.1 | 2 |
| Zac Stacy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 9 | 79 | 1 |
| Kenbrell Thompkins | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 4 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Zac Stacy | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.97