2015 · Week 9

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

23·28

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapJets
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.025
  • 41.8%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.254EPA / rush-0.144
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.08CPOE-1.27
  • 33.9%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.90
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2012 · W14NYJ @ JAX17–10NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
JAXQ1 14:02929Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 8:59651Touchdown3–7
JAXQ1 5:0832Turnover3–7
NYJQ1 4:10727Touchdown3–14
JAXQ1 0:43849Punt3–14
NYJQ2 11:42936Punt3–14
JAXQ2 6:063-6Punt3–14
NYJQ2 4:3333Punt3–14
JAXQ2 3:36845Punt3–14
NYJQ2 1:3034Punt3–14
JAXQ2 0:26250Touchdown10–14
NYJQ2 0:1400End of half10–14
JAXQ3 15:00925Punt10–14
NYJQ3 8:5659Punt10–14
JAXQ3 6:15423Field goal13–14
NYJQ3 4:32873Touchdown13–21
JAXQ3 2:0238Punt13–21
NYJQ3 0:2639Punt13–21
JAXQ4 13:13873Field goal16–21
NYJQ4 10:18645Punt16–21
JAXQ4 7:45566Turnover16–21
NYJQ4 5:16311Punt16–21
NYJQ4 3:37325Touchdown16–28
JAXQ4 2:41372Touchdown23–28
NYJQ4 2:163-1Punt23–28
JAXQ4 0:5410Turnover23–28
NYJQ4 0:4300End of half23–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles24/4038122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon14644.60
Blake Bortles4328.00
Denard Robinson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Hurns581221
Allen Robinson6111210
Bryan Walters57541
T.J. Yeldon33370
Marcedes Lewis11270
Julius Thomas38140
Nic Jacobs1160
Denard Robinson0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3427220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory23261.12
Zac Stacy133.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker69791
Kenbrell Thompkins44450
Brandon Marshall48441
Jeff Cumberland13440
Chris Ivory33220
Jeremy Kerley23220
Zac Stacy13160
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.97