2022 · Week 16

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

19·3

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapJets
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.086
  • 46.6%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.07CPOE-4.97
  • 42.0%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
  • 2.07Points / drive1.41
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15NYJ @ JAX20–48JAX
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ
2012 · W14NYJ @ JAX17–10NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–NYJ
JAXQ1 15:003-7Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 13:363-3Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 11:37961Field goal3–3
NYJQ1 7:15633Punt3–3
JAXQ1 4:411696Touchdown10–3
NYJQ2 11:26632Punt10–3
JAXQ2 7:39761Field goal13–3
NYJQ2 2:553-2Punt13–3
JAXQ2 1:51640Missed field goal13–3
NYJQ2 0:2546Turnover13–3
NYJQ3 15:0039Punt13–3
JAXQ3 13:301259Field goal16–3
NYJQ3 7:0643Punt16–3
JAXQ3 5:0435Punt16–3
NYJQ3 3:311683Turnover on downs16–3
JAXQ4 10:241048Punt16–3
NYJQ4 5:39621Turnover16–3
JAXQ4 4:1035Field goal19–3
NYJQ4 3:46845Turnover on downs19–3
JAXQ4 1:3500End of half19–3

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence20/3122900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne22833.80
Trevor Lawrence7517.31
JaMycal Hasty3103.30
Snoop Conner252.50
Christian Kirk144.00
Zay Jones1-3-3.00
C.J. Beathard3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram781130
Travis Etienne33290
Christian Kirk36220
Dan Arnold11170
Marvin Jones34150
Zay Jones14140
JaMycal Hasty13110
Jamal Agnew1180

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson9/189201
Chris Streveler10/159000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Streveler9546.00
Ty Johnson273.50
Michael Carter263.00
Zach Wilson111.00
Bam Knight6-2-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Carter55440
Tyler Conklin44340
C.J. Uzomah11300
Garrett Wilson49300
Elijah Moore23150
Bam Knight11150
Corey Davis27140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.23