Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.086
- 46.6%Success rate39.1%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.07CPOE-4.97
- 42.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate39.8%
- 2.07Points / drive1.41
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. NYJ are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/31 | 229 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Snoop Conner | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 7 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 9/18 | 92 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Streveler | 10/15 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Streveler | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 6 | -2 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Bam Knight | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.23