Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.130
- 37.1%Success rate40.4%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.196EPA / rush-0.184
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.42CPOE-4.63
- 32.2%Third-down rate40.5%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.47Points / drive1.26
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 17/34 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Enunwa | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 29/38 | 388 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 9 | 13 | 130 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 5 | 5 | 109 | 1 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Corey Grant | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.47