Closing spread
JAX -13.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+14.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.039
- 40.5%Success rate44.5%
- -0.137EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.073
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -4.21CPOE-1.56
- 35.0%Third-down rate40.9%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.54Points / drive2.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Cook | 22/33 | 176 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Davis | 9 | 58 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Brady Cook | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adonai Mitchell | 6 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Isaiah Williams | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 20/32 | 330 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 5 | 51 | 10.2 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 3 | 4 | 73 | 3 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 4 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Parker Washington | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Brenton Strange | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Quintin Morris | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
82.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.61
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+14.10