2025 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Brady Cook

20·48

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

JAX -13.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+14.1est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.039
  • 40.5%Success rate44.5%
  • -0.137EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.073
  • 6.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -4.21CPOE-1.56
  • 35.0%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.30
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15NYJ @ JAX32–25NYJ
2022 · W16JAX @ NYJ19–3JAX
2021 · W16JAX @ NYJ21–26NYJ
2019 · W8NYJ @ JAX15–29JAX
2018 · W4NYJ @ JAX12–31JAX
2017 · W4JAX @ NYJ20–23NYJ
2015 · W9JAX @ NYJ23–28NYJ
2012 · W14NYJ @ JAX17–10NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00972Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 10:1843Turnover on downs0–7
JAXQ1 8:46538Touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 6:24865Touchdown7–14
JAXQ1 1:47651Touchdown7–21
NYJQ2 14:14723Punt7–21
JAXQ2 10:403-2Punt7–21
NYJQ2 9:39826Field goal10–21
JAXQ2 5:03959Field goal10–24
NYJQ2 1:3321Turnover10–24
JAXQ2 1:07752Touchdown10–31
NYJQ2 0:2117End of half10–31
NYJQ3 15:00832Field goal13–31
JAXQ3 10:47772Touchdown13–38
NYJQ3 7:0147Turnover on downs13–38
JAXQ3 4:41638Field goal13–41
NYJQ3 1:43555Touchdown20–41
JAXQ4 14:08245Touchdown20–48
NYJQ4 13:40511Punt20–48
JAXQ4 10:3226Turnover20–48
NYJQ4 9:40413Turnover20–48
JAXQ4 7:2739Punt20–48
NYJQ4 4:561241Turnover20–48
JAXQ4 1:2400End of half20–48

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Cook22/3317613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Davis9586.41
Brady Cook6396.50
Breece Hall12231.90
Khalil Herbert252.50
John Metchie III144.00
Adonai Mitchell1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adonai Mitchell69581
Isaiah Williams67530
John Metchie III45250
Breece Hall22140
Jeremy Ruckert22130
Isaiah Davis1170
Allen Lazard1260
Khalil Herbert0100
Arian Smith0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence20/3233050

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trevor Lawrence55110.21
Travis Etienne12322.70
LeQuint Allen Jr.4112.80
Bhayshul Tuten177.00
Brian Thomas Jr.155.00
Dyami Brown144.00
Nick Mullens3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Etienne34733
Jakobi Meyers57710
Brian Thomas Jr.47661
Parker Washington33530
Brenton Strange13260
Quintin Morris22200
Bhayshul Tuten11161
LeQuint Allen Jr.1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.55.6%2.0%2.7%4.4%3.3%3.7%3.2%3.2%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

82.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.61
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+14.10