Closing spread
KC -11
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/33 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.