Closing spread
KC -11
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:52 | 5 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:05 | 11 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 3:15 | 6 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 0:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 14:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 12:55 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 8:52 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:21 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 1:50 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:22 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| KC | Q3 10:19 | 5 | 33 | Field goal | 14–24 |
| LV | Q3 7:12 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 14–24 |
| KC | Q3 2:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–24 |
| LV | Q3 1:57 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| KC | Q4 14:26 | 8 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 21–24 |
| LV | Q4 10:04 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 21–24 |
| KC | Q4 7:24 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 21–24 |
| LV | Q4 3:51 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| KC | Q4 2:18 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| LV | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/33 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 3 | 40 | 13.3 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.