Closing spread
STL -7
Total
44
Model margin
-0.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:02 | 6 | 23 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:53 | 1 | 10 | Touchdown | 6–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:17 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:15 | 7 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:43 | 4 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q1 3:35 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:52 | 9 | 31 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q2 10:24 | 9 | 76 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| LA | Q2 5:33 | 7 | 48 | Opp touchdown | 14–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:50 | 7 | 64 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q3 12:58 | 4 | 36 | Opp touchdown | 24–10 |
| ARI | Q3 10:43 | 13 | 81 | Turnover on downs | 24–10 |
| LA | Q3 3:33 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 24–16 |
| ARI | Q3 0:07 | 1 | 54 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| LA | Q4 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–17 |
| ARI | Q4 14:42 | 6 | 22 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 11:59 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 24–24 |
| ARI | Q4 9:12 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 7:47 | 1 | -11 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| ARI | Q4 7:41 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| LA | Q4 6:05 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 24–27 |
| ARI | Q4 5:16 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 24–27 |
| LA | Q4 3:23 | 15 | 82 | Field goal | 27–27 |
| LA | OT | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 30–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 15/28 | 192 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 24 | 95 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.