Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
42
Model margin
+3.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.049EPA / play-0.084
- 43.9%Success rate41.6%
- +0.126EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.170
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 44.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.83Points / drive1.33
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.077EPA / play allowed-0.051
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 18/32 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 28/42 | 313 | 1 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 1/2 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 20 | 62 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.31