Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 14:47 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 13:16 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:23 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:29 | 10 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:09 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| KC | Q1 3:30 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q2 12:41 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| KC | Q2 12:22 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q2 11:17 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| KC | Q2 6:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:17 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–7 |
| KC | Q2 4:53 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:54 | 8 | 43 | Missed field goal | 21–7 |
| KC | Q2 0:07 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 21–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 21–10 |
| KC | Q3 8:59 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q3 5:03 | 5 | 77 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| KC | Q3 2:56 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q4 14:54 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| KC | Q4 11:18 | 8 | 27 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| LAC | Q4 6:28 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 28–17 |
| KC | Q4 4:07 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 28–17 |
| LAC | Q4 1:08 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 17/30 | 155 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 31 | 162 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Derrick Blaylock | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.