Closing spread
STL -6
Total
51
Model margin
+1.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 33/47 | 330 | 1 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 14 | 98 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.