Closing spread
STL -6
Total
51
Model margin
+1.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LA | Q1 13:21 | 1 | 18 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 13:14 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:18 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q1 5:40 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LA | Q1 0:56 | 9 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| MIN | Q2 11:50 | 11 | 84 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| LA | Q2 5:43 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| MIN | Q2 4:10 | 7 | 41 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:51 | 3 | 48 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 17–20 |
| MIN | Q3 10:42 | 7 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 17–20 |
| LA | Q3 7:23 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| MIN | Q3 4:50 | 4 | 19 | Turnover | 17–33 |
| LA | Q3 2:47 | 1 | 12 | Touchdown | 17–34 |
| MIN | Q3 2:39 | 12 | 57 | Opp touchdown | 17–41 |
| MIN | Q4 12:06 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 17–41 |
| LA | Q4 9:47 | 5 | 50 | Touchdown | 17–48 |
| MIN | Q4 6:48 | 13 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 17–48 |
| LA | Q4 3:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–48 |
| MIN | Q4 1:53 | 6 | 46 | Turnover | 17–48 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 33/47 | 330 | 1 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 14 | 98 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.