Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.149
- 43.2%Success rate50.8%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.203EPA / rush+0.065
- 8.0%Explosive rate12.1%
- +2.40CPOE+1.24
- 36.2%Third-down rate45.0%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.57Points / drive2.63
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. LA are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 36/50 | 422 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Roc Thomas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 12 | 135 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 11 | 15 | 123 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 2 | 33 | 2 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Roc Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/33 | 465 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 11 | 162 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 8 | 116 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 5 | 101 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 6 | 73 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.01