2018 · Week 4

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

31·38

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapRams
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.149
  • 43.2%Success rate50.8%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.203EPA / rush+0.065
  • 8.0%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +2.40CPOE+1.24
  • 36.2%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.63
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–6 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. LA are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsMIN @ LA9–27RAMS
2024 · W8MIN @ LA20–30RAMS
2021 · W16LA @ MIN30–23RAMS
2017 · W11LA @ MIN7–24MIN
2015 · W9STL @ MIN18–21MIN
2014 · W1MIN @ STL34–6MIN
2012 · W15MIN @ STL36–22MIN
2009 · W5MIN @ STL38–10MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–LA
MINQ1 15:001375Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 7:551370Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 1:551261Field goal10–7
LAQ2 10:05275Touchdown10–14
MINQ2 9:28375Touchdown17–14
LAQ2 8:0437Punt17–14
MINQ2 6:5734Punt17–14
LAQ2 5:37471Touchdown17–21
MINQ2 3:47715Punt17–21
LAQ2 1:41258Touchdown17–28
MINQ2 1:26431Field goal17–28
MINQ2 0:4310Field goal17–28
MINQ2 0:37318Field goal20–28
LAQ2 0:0200End of half20–28
LAQ3 15:00739Turnover on downs20–28
MINQ3 10:54618Punt20–28
LAQ3 8:22568Field goal20–31
MINQ3 5:21575Touchdown28–31
LAQ3 3:35575Touchdown28–38
MINQ3 1:0946Punt28–38
LAQ4 13:591075Missed field goal28–38
MINQ4 8:21858Field goal31–38
LAQ4 3:4639Punt31–38
MINQ4 2:20410Turnover31–38
LAQ4 1:18110End of half31–38

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins36/5042230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kirk Cousins4287.00
Dalvin Cook10202.00
Roc Thomas144.00
Latavius Murray221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen8121351
Stefon Diggs11151230
Kyle Rudolph56570
Laquon Treadwell47470
Aldrick Robinson22332
Latavius Murray22160
David Morgan1130
Mike Boone1110
Roc Thomas0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff26/3346550

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley17834.90
Brandin Cooks11010.00
Jared Goff273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp9111622
Brandin Cooks781161
Robert Woods551011
Todd Gurley46731
Gerald Everett11130
Tyler Higbee0100
Josh Reynolds0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.01