Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- QuestionableGreg GainesTAnkle· DNP
- DNPAndrew WhitworthTNot injury related - resting player
Vikings
- QuestionableAdam ThielenWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableC.J. HamFBHamstring· Limited
- DNPMason ColeCElbow
- LimitedAlexander MattisonRBNot Injury Related
- LimitedEric KendricksLBBack
Win probability
- Vikings
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.018
- 46.6%Success rate41.6%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.40CPOE+0.82
- 42.6%Third-down rate36.6%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 2.32Points / drive2.13
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. MIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LA–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:57 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 7:13 | 12 | 84 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q2 14:17 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q2 12:08 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q2 6:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LA | Q2 5:00 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q2 4:02 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 2:34 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| MIN | Q2 0:11 | 3 | 8 | End of half | 13–3 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| MIN | Q3 14:05 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 13–3 |
| LA | Q3 11:19 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 13–9 |
| MIN | Q3 11:07 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:01 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–10 |
| MIN | Q3 9:18 | 3 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 20–10 |
| MIN | Q3 7:06 | 11 | 83 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| LA | Q3 1:31 | 11 | 75 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| MIN | Q4 11:37 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| LA | Q4 8:21 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 30–20 |
| MIN | Q4 2:03 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 30–23 |
| LA | Q4 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/37 | 197 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 27 | 131 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jake Funk | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10 | 13 | 109 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 4 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 27/38 | 315 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 12 | 116 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 7 | 68 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.76