2024 · WC

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

9·27

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Rams

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapRams
  • +0.038EPA / play+0.038
  • 46.3%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.135EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +4.00CPOE-0.97
  • 39.7%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 2.09Points / drive2.09
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–6 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. LA are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8MIN @ LA20–30RAMS
2021 · W16LA @ MIN30–23RAMS
2018 · W4MIN @ LA31–38RAMS
2017 · W11LA @ MIN7–24MIN
2015 · W9STL @ MIN18–21MIN
2014 · W1MIN @ STL34–6MIN
2012 · W15MIN @ STL36–22MIN
2009 · W5MIN @ STL38–10MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–LA
LAQ1 15:00765Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 10:2230Punt0–7
LAQ1 8:10777Field goal0–10
MINQ1 4:01854Field goal3–10
LAQ2 14:1730Punt3–10
MINQ2 13:58711Turnover3–10
LAQ2 10:14410Punt3–10
MINQ2 8:24747Opp touchdown3–17
MINQ2 4:3579Turnover on downs3–17
LAQ2 1:27539Touchdown3–24
MINQ2 0:1500End of half3–24
MINQ3 15:00520Punt3–24
LAQ3 13:321051Field goal3–27
MINQ3 7:19757Touchdown9–27
LAQ3 5:05512Punt9–27
MINQ3 2:071131Punt9–27
LAQ4 12:01731Punt9–27
MINQ4 7:251129Turnover on downs9–27
LAQ4 3:3538Punt9–27
MINQ4 2:33612Turnover on downs9–27
LAQ4 0:4500End of half9–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold25/4024511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13483.70
Cam Akers5397.80
Sam Darnold4194.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson55641
Justin Jefferson58580
Jalen Nailor35330
Jordan Addison38290
Johnny Mundt23280
Aaron Jones36120
Trent Sherfield2380
Josh Oliver1150

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/2720920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams16764.80
Ronnie Rivers382.70
Puka Nacua177.00
Matthew Stafford2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee55580
Puka Nacua59440
Cooper Kupp11290
Demarcus Robinson12230
Kyren Williams33161
Colby Parkinson22130
Hunter Long12130
Davis Allen12131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92