Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.038
- 46.3%Success rate47.5%
- +0.135EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- +4.00CPOE-0.97
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 2.09Points / drive2.09
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. LA are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 25/40 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/27 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92