Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
46
Model margin
+4.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.026
- 43.3%Success rate42.5%
- +0.131EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.142
- 11.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.32CPOE+3.66
- 41.3%Third-down rate44.3%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.27Points / drive2.02
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. MIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/37 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 8 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 27/38 | 280 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 15 | 95 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 9 | 123 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| David Morgan | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.40