2017 · Week 11

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

7·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

46

Model margin

+4.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapVikings
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.026
  • 43.3%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.131EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.142
  • 11.4%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.32CPOE+3.66
  • 41.3%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.27Points / drive2.02
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–6 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. MIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsMIN @ LA9–27RAMS
2024 · W8MIN @ LA20–30RAMS
2021 · W16LA @ MIN30–23RAMS
2018 · W4MIN @ LA31–38RAMS
2015 · W9STL @ MIN18–21MIN
2014 · W1MIN @ STL34–6MIN
2012 · W15MIN @ STL36–22MIN
2009 · W5MIN @ STL38–10MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–MIN
LAQ1 15:001070Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 10:421439Punt7–0
LAQ1 3:213-9Punt7–0
MINQ1 1:40730Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 13:31637Punt7–7
MINQ2 10:40655Missed field goal7–7
LAQ2 7:491046Turnover7–7
MINQ2 4:03739Punt7–7
LAQ2 0:0800End of half7–7
MINQ3 15:0032Punt7–7
LAQ3 13:45525Punt7–7
MINQ3 10:391074Missed field goal7–7
LAQ3 6:1732Punt7–7
MINQ3 5:161266Touchdown7–14
LAQ4 14:15522Punt7–14
MINQ4 12:37678Touchdown7–21
LAQ4 10:1438Punt7–21
MINQ4 8:181269Field goal7–24
LAQ4 2:231254Turnover on downs7–24
MINQ4 0:1000End of half7–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3722500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley15372.51
Jared Goff284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods811810
Cooper Kupp67640
Sammy Watkins34360
Todd Gurley34190
Mike Thomas11120
Gerald Everett1280
Tyler Higbee1550
Pharoh Cooper0100
Josh Reynolds0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum27/3828010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray15956.32
Jerick McKinnon14483.40
Case Keenum3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen691231
Kyle Rudolph57580
Stefon Diggs46320
Jarius Wright11230
Michael Floyd22160
Jerick McKinnon57120
Laquon Treadwell23100
David Morgan1150
Latavius Murray1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.40