Closing spread
STL -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 17/25 | 170 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 102 | 34.0 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.