Closing spread
STL -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- OutBrandon WattsLBKnee· DNP
- OutMichael MautiLBFoot· DNP
- OutZach LineRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableEverson GriffenDEIllness· DNP
- QuestionableMike HarrisTShoulder· Limited
- ProbableJabari PriceCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableRodney SmithWRNeck· Full
Rams
- OutBarrett JonesCBack· DNP
- OutTrumaine JohnsonCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableEugene SimsDEKnee· Limited
- ProbableMaurice AlexanderSNot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableJake LongTKnee· Full
- ProbableJo-Lonn DunbarLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableWilliam HayesDEChest· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 46 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:37 | 4 | 29 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 6:56 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:17 | 7 | 41 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 1:09 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:16 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 6–0 |
| MIN | Q2 11:52 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LA | Q2 8:58 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 6–0 |
| MIN | Q2 4:39 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LA | Q2 1:38 | 2 | -6 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| MIN | Q2 1:09 | 4 | 35 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| LA | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–0 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| MIN | Q3 10:11 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 13–3 |
| LA | Q3 5:31 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 19–3 |
| MIN | Q3 2:08 | 1 | 67 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| LA | Q3 1:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–3 |
| MIN | Q3 0:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–3 |
| LA | Q4 14:17 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 20–3 |
| MIN | Q4 11:50 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 27–3 |
| LA | Q4 6:27 | 11 | 57 | Opp touchdown | 34–3 |
| LA | Q4 2:57 | 8 | 76 | Field goal | 34–6 |
| MIN | Q4 1:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 17/25 | 170 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 102 | 34.0 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 21 | 75 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.