2015 · Week 9

Final / OT

Rams

St. Louis

QB Nick Foles

18·21

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

MIN -2

Total

40

Model margin

+3.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

STL lead 8–6 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. MIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsMIN @ LA9–27RAMS
2024 · W8MIN @ LA20–30RAMS
2021 · W16LA @ MIN30–23RAMS
2018 · W4MIN @ LA31–38RAMS
2017 · W11LA @ MIN7–24MIN
2014 · W1MIN @ STL34–6MIN
2012 · W15MIN @ STL36–22MIN
2009 · W5MIN @ STL38–10MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSTL–MIN
LAQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:55825Field goal0–3
LAQ1 10:19415Punt0–3
MINQ1 8:56767Touchdown0–10
LAQ1 5:24880Touchdown6–10
MINQ1 1:09612Punt6–10
LAQ2 13:15522Field goal9–10
MINQ2 10:55415Punt9–10
LAQ2 9:101142Field goal12–10
MINQ2 3:23421Punt12–10
LAQ2 1:45658Field goal15–10
MINQ3 15:00215Turnover15–10
LAQ3 14:1330Punt15–10
MINQ3 11:59660Touchdown15–18
LAQ3 8:3937Punt15–18
MINQ3 7:33711Punt15–18
LAQ3 4:1654Punt15–18
MINQ3 1:08915Punt15–18
LAQ4 12:01536Punt15–18
MINQ4 9:44528Punt15–18
LAQ4 7:4437Punt15–18
MINQ4 6:4836Punt15–18
LAQ4 5:10735Missed field goal15–18
MINQ4 1:423-10Punt15–18
LAQ4 1:14619Field goal18–18
MINQ4 0:1200End of half18–18
LAOT3-6Punt18–18
MINOT629Field goal18–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater13/2114401
Shaun Hill2/61500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson291254.31
Teddy Bridgewater3175.71
Matt Asiata242.00
Shaun Hill1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs35420
Kyle Rudolph22300
Charles D. Johnson12250
Adrian Peterson22180
Jarius Wright13120
Rhett Ellison23110
Jerick McKinnon22110
MyCole Pruitt1260
Mike Wallace1640

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.34

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.