Closing spread
MIN -2
Total
40
Model margin
+3.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. MIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 13/21 | 144 | 0 | 1 |
| Shaun Hill | 2/6 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 29 | 125 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.34
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.