Closing spread
STL -1
Total
39
Model margin
+3.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- QuestionableAntoine WinfieldCBKnee· DNP
- ProbableA.J. OrangeCBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableAdrian PetersonRBAbdomen· Limited
- ProbableCharlie JohnsonGAnkle· Full
- ProbableChris KluwePleft Knee· Full
- ProbableJared AllenDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableJasper BrinkleyLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableKyle RudolphTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableLetroy GuionDTShin· Full
- ProbablePhil LoadholtTKnee· Full
- ProbableRobert BlantonSNeck· Full
Rams
- QuestionableJermelle CudjoDTFoot· DNP
- ProbableJanoris JenkinsCBIllness· DNP
- ProbableSteven JacksonRBFoot· DNP
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBBack· Limited
- ProbableCortland FinneganCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableCraig DahlSHead· Full
- ProbableDanny AmendolaWRFoot· Full
- ProbableMario HagganLBElbow· Full
- ProbableMike McNeillTEThigh· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCKnee· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:45 | 10 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:07 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 4:09 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:15 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q2 12:39 | 1 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:21 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q2 10:52 | 3 | -4 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:11 | 3 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 24–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:25 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 24–7 |
| MIN | Q2 6:29 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 27–7 |
| LA | Q2 3:11 | 9 | 57 | Missed field goal | 27–7 |
| MIN | Q2 1:00 | 4 | 29 | Field goal | 30–7 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 30–7 |
| LA | Q3 13:04 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 30–7 |
| MIN | Q3 11:12 | 9 | 25 | Field goal | 33–7 |
| LA | Q3 5:56 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 33–14 |
| MIN | Q4 13:39 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 33–14 |
| LA | Q4 9:53 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 33–22 |
| MIN | Q4 7:48 | 4 | 47 | Field goal | 36–22 |
| LA | Q4 5:31 | 6 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 36–22 |
| MIN | Q4 4:24 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 36–22 |
| LA | Q4 3:15 | 10 | 81 | Turnover on downs | 36–22 |
| MIN | Q4 1:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 36–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 17/24 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 212 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.