Closing spread
STL -1
Total
39
Model margin
+3.0est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. STL are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 17/24 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 212 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Stephen Burton | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.