2024 · Week 8

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

20·30

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapRams
  • +0.038EPA / play+0.038
  • 46.3%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.135EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +4.00CPOE-0.97
  • 39.7%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 2.09Points / drive2.09
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–6 since 1999

RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. LA are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · playoffsMIN @ LA9–27RAMS
2021 · W16LA @ MIN30–23RAMS
2018 · W4MIN @ LA31–38RAMS
2017 · W11LA @ MIN7–24MIN
2015 · W9STL @ MIN18–21MIN
2014 · W1MIN @ STL34–6MIN
2012 · W15MIN @ STL36–22MIN
2009 · W5MIN @ STL38–10MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–LA
MINQ1 15:00870Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 10:43963Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 6:381070Touchdown14–7
LAQ1 0:531265Touchdown14–14
MINQ2 10:0536Punt14–14
LAQ2 9:06725Punt14–14
MINQ2 4:463-1Punt14–14
LAQ2 2:50839Punt14–14
MINQ2 0:3512End of half14–14
LAQ3 15:00734Turnover14–14
MINQ3 12:081068Field goal17–14
LAQ3 6:22875Touchdown17–21
MINQ3 2:36853Field goal20–21
LAQ4 12:471154Touchdown20–28
MINQ4 6:17414Punt20–28
LAQ4 4:11635Punt20–28
MINQ4 1:462-5Safety20–30
LAQ4 1:3600End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold18/2524020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones19583.10
Sam Darnold362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson891150
Aaron Jones22370
Josh Oliver22301
Jordan Addison23220
Jalen Nailor24160
Johnny Mundt12100
Trent Sherfield11101

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3427941

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams23974.20
Blake Corum492.30
Puka Nacua252.50
Matthew Stafford3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua791060
Cooper Kupp58511
Demarcus Robinson23352
Kyren Williams57191
Tutu Atwell12180
Hunter Long11180
Colby Parkinson22170
Blake Corum1190
Tyler Johnson1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92