Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.038
- 46.3%Success rate47.5%
- +0.135EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- +4.00CPOE-0.97
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 2.09Points / drive2.09
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. LA are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 18/25 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 8 | 9 | 115 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/34 | 279 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 23 | 97 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3 | 35 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams | 5 | 7 | 19 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Hunter Long | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92