2003 · Week 13
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NO -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.061
- 42.3%Success rate40.4%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.048
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 46.4%Third-down rate34.4%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.71Points / drive1.45
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.018EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/30 | 121 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 30 | 165 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 2 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hasselbeck | 22/42 | 231 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trung Canidate | 16 | 115 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.53