2017 · Week 11
Final / OT
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -9.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.092
- 40.8%Success rate45.3%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.203EPA / rush+0.026
- 9.1%Explosive rate12.4%
- +1.00CPOE+4.74
- 32.5%Third-down rate38.5%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.61Points / drive2.37
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/32 | 322 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 23 | 117 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Doctson | 4 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 3 | 59 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Niles Paul | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/41 | 385 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 11 | 134 | 12.2 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 5 | 91 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.51