2017 · Week 11

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

31·34

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -9.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSaints
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.092
  • 40.8%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.203EPA / rush+0.026
  • 9.1%Explosive rate12.4%
  • +1.00CPOE+4.74
  • 32.5%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.37
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15WAS @ NO20–19WAS
2021 · W5NO @ WAS33–22NO
2018 · W5WAS @ NO19–43NO
2015 · W10NO @ WAS14–47WAS
2012 · W1WAS @ NO40–32WAS
2009 · W13NO @ WAS33–30NO
2008 · W2NO @ WAS24–29WAS
2006 · W15WAS @ NO16–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NO
NOQ1 15:0044Turnover0–0
WASQ1 13:51527Field goal3–0
NOQ1 11:401048Field goal3–3
WASQ1 5:30775Touchdown10–3
NOQ1 2:11565Touchdown10–10
WASQ1 0:35971Touchdown17–10
NOQ2 10:44832Punt17–10
WASQ2 6:531249Punt17–10
NOQ2 1:39869Field goal17–13
WASQ3 15:00422Punt17–13
NOQ3 12:51945Punt17–13
WASQ3 7:211294Touchdown24–13
NOQ3 1:37527Punt24–13
WASQ4 13:32416Punt24–13
NOQ4 11:21427Field goal24–16
WASQ4 9:19675Touchdown31–16
NOQ4 5:58985Touchdown31–23
WASQ4 2:5338Punt31–23
NOQ4 1:53464Touchdown31–29
NOQ4 1:11118Touchdown31–31
WASQ4 1:05112End of half31–31
WASQ4 0:45417End of half31–31
WASOT3-10Punt31–31
NOOT251Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3232230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Samaje Perine231175.11
Chris Thompson4174.30
Kirk Cousins3113.70
Niles Paul155.00
Jamison Crowder144.00
Byron Marshall122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Doctson47810
Jamison Crowder78720
Vernon Davis36670
Ryan Grant33591
Chris Thompson11161
Niles Paul22110
Samaje Perine1290
Jeremy Sprinkle1171

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4138521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram1113412.21
Alvin Kamara8425.30
Drew Brees122.00
Josh Hill1-8-8.00
Ted Ginn1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener55910
Michael Thomas611910
Ted Ginn66870
Alvin Kamara69741
Mark Ingram34210
Willie Snead12120
Brandon Coleman1260
Josh Hill1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.51