2021 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutErik McCoyCCalf· DNP
- OutTerron ArmsteadTElbow· DNP
Commanders
- OutBrandon ScherffGKnee· DNP
- OutCam SimsWRHamstring· DNP
- OutDyami BrownWRKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GibsonRBShin· Limited
- QuestionableCole HolcombLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableCurtis SamuelWRGroin· Limited
- QuestionableDaron PayneDTToe· DNP
Win probability
- Commanders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.036
- 41.1%Success rate44.8%
- +0.003EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.062
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- -5.00CPOE-0.08
- 36.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.88Points / drive1.78
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:19 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 12:27 | 3 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| WAS | Q1 11:13 | 11 | 72 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| NO | Q1 4:55 | 3 | 25 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| WAS | Q1 3:27 | 9 | 23 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| NO | Q2 14:16 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| WAS | Q2 10:58 | 9 | 69 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| NO | Q2 7:03 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–13 |
| WAS | Q2 6:42 | 7 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 13–13 |
| NO | Q2 4:12 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 13–13 |
| WAS | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 19–13 |
| NO | Q2 0:08 | 1 | 49 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–13 |
| NO | Q3 13:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–13 |
| WAS | Q3 12:57 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 20–13 |
| NO | Q3 9:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–13 |
| WAS | Q3 9:13 | 13 | 69 | Field goal | 20–16 |
| NO | Q3 1:53 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 20–16 |
| WAS | Q4 14:00 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 20–16 |
| NO | Q4 13:44 | 4 | 26 | Touchdown | 27–16 |
| WAS | Q4 12:12 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 27–22 |
| NO | Q4 7:51 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 33–22 |
| WAS | Q4 3:15 | 5 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 33–22 |
| NO | Q4 2:45 | 5 | 11 | End of half | 33–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 15/30 | 279 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 4 | 8 | 85 | 2 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 72 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 20/41 | 248 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 20 | 60 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 5 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.7%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.00