2012 · Week 1
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -9.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.137EPA / play+0.094
- 46.7%Success rate47.2%
- +0.233EPA / dropback+0.160
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.039
- 12.8%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.84CPOE+0.89
- 35.5%Third-down rate43.1%
- 67.7%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 2.11Points / drive2.17
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 19/26 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 28 | 96 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Robert Griffin III | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 4 | 109 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 4 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/52 | 339 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 6 | 10 | 120 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 10 | 85 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
48.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.13