2012 · Week 1

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

40·32

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -9.5

Total

50

Model margin

+1.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSaints
  • +0.137EPA / play+0.094
  • 46.7%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.233EPA / dropback+0.160
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.039
  • 12.8%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +4.84CPOE+0.89
  • 35.5%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 67.7%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.17
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15WAS @ NO20–19WAS
2021 · W5NO @ WAS33–22NO
2018 · W5WAS @ NO19–43NO
2017 · W11WAS @ NO31–34NO
2015 · W10NO @ WAS14–47WAS
2009 · W13NO @ WAS33–30NO
2008 · W2NO @ WAS24–29WAS
2006 · W15WAS @ NO16–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NO
NOQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
WASQ1 14:341149Field goal3–0
NOQ1 7:05765Touchdown3–7
WASQ1 3:49188Touchdown10–7
NOQ1 3:2830Punt10–7
WASQ1 2:531257Touchdown17–7
NOQ2 11:333-2Punt17–7
WASQ2 9:13639Field goal20–7
NOQ2 6:081077Turnover20–7
WASQ2 1:4638Opp touchdown20–14
WASQ2 0:4000End of half20–14
WASQ3 15:00855Touchdown27–14
NOQ3 11:2440Punt27–14
WASQ3 10:50855Field goal30–14
NOQ3 7:101560Field goal30–17
WASQ3 1:501258Field goal33–17
NOQ4 10:594-6Punt33–17
WASQ4 9:3737Punt33–17
NOQ4 7:23658Touchdown33–25
WASQ4 6:19419Punt33–25
NOQ4 3:3910Turnover39–25
WASQ4 3:2313Touchdown40–25
NOQ4 3:181165Touchdown40–32
WASQ4 2:25522Punt40–32
NOQ4 0:22341Turnover40–32

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III19/2632020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris28963.42
Robert Griffin III9424.70
Evan Royster2105.00
Roy Helu221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon441091
Aldrick Robinson46521
Santana Moss35470
Fred Davis24380
Roy Helu33250
Logan Paulsen11220
Josh Morgan12210
Brandon Banks1160

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/5233932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas4174.30
Mark Ingram6152.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Moore6101201
Jimmy Graham610851
Marques Colston411710
Darren Sproles58351
Pierre Thomas11120
Devery Henderson12110
David Thomas1250
Mark Ingram0100
Joseph Morgan0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

48.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.13