2015 · Week 10

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

14·47

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NO -1

Total

52

Model margin

+4.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.080EPA / play+0.022
  • 44.6%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.191
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +2.78CPOE+5.62
  • 48.9%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.81
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15WAS @ NO20–19WAS
2021 · W5NO @ WAS33–22NO
2018 · W5WAS @ NO19–43NO
2017 · W11WAS @ NO31–34NO
2012 · W1WAS @ NO40–32WAS
2009 · W13NO @ WAS33–30NO
2008 · W2NO @ WAS24–29WAS
2006 · W15WAS @ NO16–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–WAS
WASQ1 15:001198Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 8:14583Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 5:52875Touchdown7–14
NOQ1 0:583-6Punt7–14
WASQ2 14:19515Punt7–14
NOQ2 12:07383Touchdown14–14
WASQ2 10:44280Touchdown14–21
NOQ2 9:52420Punt14–21
WASQ2 7:12762Field goal14–24
NOQ2 3:18410Punt14–24
WASQ2 1:42864Field goal14–27
NOQ3 15:001149Turnover on downs14–27
WASQ3 8:53747Field goal14–30
NOQ3 4:3848Punt14–30
WASQ3 3:21644Touchdown14–37
NOQ3 0:11413Opp touchdown14–44
NOQ4 14:1846Turnover on downs14–44
WASQ4 13:22518Field goal14–47
NOQ4 9:33847Turnover14–47
WASQ4 5:3837Punt14–47
NOQ4 3:38737End of half14–47

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees19/2820922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram57715.40
Tim Hightower11464.20
C.J. Spiller8243.00
Brandin Cooks11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks58982
Trevor Graham22250
Marques Colston35220
Mark Ingram34210
Benjamin Watson35190
Brandon Coleman11140
C.J. Spiller22100
Willie Snead0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/2532440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris15926.10
Matt Jones11565.10
Chris Thompson25427.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Jones331311
Jamison Crowder45601
DeSean Jackson25440
Jordan Reed34292
Chris Thompson11230
Derek Carrier11140
Alfred Morris33140
Pierre Garcon22100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.32