2015 · Week 10
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
NO -1
Total
52
Model margin
+4.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.080EPA / play+0.022
- 44.6%Success rate42.6%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.191
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +2.78CPOE+5.62
- 48.9%Third-down rate43.9%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 2.09Points / drive1.81
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 19/28 | 209 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 77 | 15.4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 98 | 2 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/25 | 324 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 15 | 92 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 54 | 27.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 3 | 3 | 131 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 5 | 60 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 3 | 4 | 29 | 2 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.32